My Futile Predictions for 2014 and the Publishing Industry

I just read J.A. Konrath's Publishing Predictions 2014 and as always, Mr. Konrath has stirred the hornet's nest with his 10 predictions concerning the state of the publishing world for the coming year.

Some of his predictions I think will come to pass in some form. Other predictions I am not so sure about but I would like to see come to pass.

His first prediction, sadly, I think will come to pass. Perhaps not in 2014, but in the not too distant future. Barnes and Noble will file for bankruptcy, spin off the Nook and close most of its stores. I hope the Nook survives as there needs to be competition in the ebook retail market to keep Amazon honest in how it pays authors in its KDP program.

I also agree with Mr. Konrath's prediction visibility will become more difficult for authors as the number of authors publishing books increases due to the ability to successfully self-publish thanks to platforms like Amazon, Nook, iBookstore, etc.

His prediction that libraries will begin purchasing ebooks from self-published authors is another concept I think will come to pass. Largely because Konrath himself is working to start a company that sells self-published ebooks to libraries. Another market for us to tap into!

As for the rest of his predictions, well, we'll see what happens in 2014.

My own predictions for the coming year?

The competition is going to increase for visibility in the ebook market. This will be an issue unless the ebook retailers can find ways to continue the increase in the number of readers who prefer to read digital books and not print.

Self-published authors need to make sure their books are available as paperbacks for at least a few years yet. Print's not going away. Some books just don't lend themselves to the book format yet, particularly non-fiction of a technical nature. Until the technology catches up, and it will, lots of readers will be better served by a paperback book than an ebook.

Social media platforms will come and go and most of us will never completely figure out how to use them to promote our work. At least those of us over the age of 35.

Finally, authors who learn to diversify and are willing to adapt to the latest delivery technology for books will be those who have the most success in the coming year.

2014 will be an interesting year.

Five Books on the Self-Publishing Industry Worth Reading from 2013

I love to read and since I am trying to increase my success financially as a self-published/indie non-fiction author, I find myself reading a lot of books about the industry. Many of them are not worth the time and money I spent. Some of them are.

Here is the short list of books I found to be worth my time and money.  Be forewarned, not everyone will agree with the list, but hopefully I will save someone some time and money with this list.

Book Marketing is Dead by Derek Murphy

Writing the book is just part of the work involved in being an author. The act of marketing and promoting the book is probably harder than writing the book. It is also the most confusing part to many authors.

Technology and social media are changing so fast it is hard to keep pace with the changes let alone understand how all this works in the book marketing process. Combined with the fact that the publishing industry is undergoing massive change, and it is easy to get confused.

Derek Murphy makes his living self-publishing books and has done so for over a decade. He has been through it all, made plenty of mistakes, and has a good idea of how to promote and market indie/self-published books.

He cuts to the chase and tells you what he has found to work, what used to work but doesn't now and what is a waste of time. The price, at least as I write, is a mere .99 cents, so not much risk in taking a look at what Derek has to say.

Write. Publish. Repeat. by Sean Platt, Johnny B. Truant with David Wright

Their writing style might not be everyone's cup of tea. The authors have a podcast show about self-publishing, filled with inside jokes and their own version of humor. Write. Publish. Repeat. is written in the same style as they perform their podcast show.

Bad inside jokes and off-color humor aside, these three authors earn their living by being self-published authors and entrepreneurs. They love what they do and like so many others in this world who are passionate about something, they want to share their knowledge. 

Unlike many books that target authors who have hopes of succeeding as a self-published author, this manual is not short. In fact, the print version of the book is 479 pages long. You won't be able to read this book in one sitting.

The most important concept in this book is the idea that creative writing, as well as non-fiction, needs to be viewed as both art and business. Books need to be written in such a way as to create on going sales, to generate constant business. The authors share how they have done this so they can permanently give up their "day jobs" and live as writers.

75 Ebook Promotion Sites That Increase Amazon Sales by Greg Strandberg

Nothing earth shattering in this book. In fact, you could find all 75 of these sites on your own. But why spend the time and effort when Greg Strandberg has already done it for you and provided all of the information in a single location?

Make Your Book Work Harder by Nancy Hendrickson and Michelle Campbell-Scott

This book covers the topic of diversification and how to broaden your sales platform as well as ideas on marketing your books for each of these platforms. It also talks about the smart use of outsourcing and social media.

Sell Your Book With An Ecourse by Jeannette S. Cates, PhD.

Since I want to expand my reach as an entrepreneur, and my "day job" is that of being a high school teacher, it makes sense to convert my non-fiction books into e-courses for sale in an online format. The author, Dr. Cates, has been involved in online education since its inception and has much to say about how this process works. Having taught online myself, I learned some things and some new resources available to make money by creating courses myself.

I am sure there are more books worth reading and I will continue to wade through the ever increasing number of books telling me how to make more money. As they say, "a sucker is born every minute."

By the way, I counted 29 books on my Kindle that I read, or attempted to read, on the same subjects these books cover that did not make my short list.

Promoting Your Books in Apple's iBookstore (iBooks)

With Apple slowly becoming a player in the ebook retail business, self-published/indie authors need to take advantage of Apple's growing share of the ebook market.

While Amazon's Kindle will certainly continue to have the largest share of the book market, Apple has a legion of loyal device users and in time should command a bigger share of the market.

Amazon provides a significant number of tools to help authors sell their books. It can be confusing at times and you have to pay attention to the ever changing landscape of Amazon, but Amazon does want authors to be able to play a role in selling their own books.

Apple is now providing some simple tools to help authors promote their books from their own blogs and websites.

The first tool I tried was Amazon's "build a widget" tool. Once you on the page, you will see the image shown below:

Once you click on the Add/Edit Book List the pop-up shown below will appear. Simply type in the name of the book or the author and the book will appear. Click on add the title and it will move to the box at the bottom. The order the books are listed in can be changed by simply dragging and dropping.

The final widget looks like the one I created below. The image was taken from the blog on my authority site.

 

 The other tool Apple has made available is called iTunes Link Maker. As soon as you arrive on the page, simply fill in the title of your book and the appropriate drop boxes and hit search.

 

Click on the blue Book Link and the pop-up box shown below will appear. I removed the HTML code for my book before taking the screen shot you see. 

You have the option of obtaining text only, a small button or a large button.

I plan to make good use of all of these tools in my efforts to let the readers of my authority site who prefer to use iBooks that my books are slowly becoming available in the iBookstore!

iBookstore, eBooks, Competition and Self-Publishing

Three of my non-fiction books became available in the Apple iBookstore on Monday, December 23rd, 2013.  On Tuesday, December 24th, I sold two copies of one of the titles.  

By itself, the sale of two ebooks is not noteworthy, even for me. Then I looked at my sales records. It took a month before I sold an ebook copy of my best selling book in paperback and second best Kindle seller after it became available in Amazon's Kindle Store.  It took six weeks to sell the first Kindle edition of my best selling ebook, of which I have sold over 3,500 copies of in just slightly over two years. 

Nothing to scream and shout about, but considering the average book sells just under 200 copies (read that a few times somewhere) and that book paid for replacing the heating and air conditioning system in my house, a new roof and a few other things, I think that's pretty good for a non-fiction niche book.

So when this title sells two copies in just its second day of being available in the Apple iBookstore, I am excited! With Apple now supposedly the number two ebook retailer behind the mighty Amazon, this in encouraging.

I don't expect to ever match the numbers I achieved with this title on Amazon, but with sales slowing for this title on Amazon, it would be nice to generate some significant sales somewhere for this title.

There is little doubt in my mind that part of the success of this book was the limited number of Kindle books available in the niche I write for. When the Kindle adoption "craze" was taking off, I benefited from good search results ranking and limited competition. I sold 1700 of those 3500+ copies in the month of January, 2012!

A quick search in the book's niche in the iBookstore revealed even fewer titles to compete with than were available in the Kindle store roughly two years ago. Now, there are 31 pages of search results of competing Kindle titles.

I counted the total number of titles in the iBookstore search and they would fill a total of 5 pages of search results on Amazon! Clearly, the title has a much better chance in the iBookstore in regaining sales momentum than it does in the Kindle store.

What am I hoping for? It is a good book, with a track record of success and has limited competition for at least the time being. Hopefully, the results of January 2012, can be repeated to a limited degree before Apple finds a way to significantly increase the number of titles it has available in the iBookstore.

What does this mean for authors who self-publish? Several important things I believe, starting with the need to find a way to get your books distributed to the iBookstore. Alas, Apple does not openly embrace self-publishing authors like Amazon has. This means you must find an aggregator who accepts titles from indie or self-publishing authors and has a distribution relationship with iBookstore. 

I narrowed my short list down to a pair of companies, Bookbaby and Draft2Digital, before going with the later. I plan to use Bookbaby for one additional title just to see how they compare in total sales as they distribute to a larger number of ebook retailers than Draft2Digital. At this time though, my main concern was getting a few titles listed via iBookstore to see how things go.

While Smashwords has worked well for a lot of indie authors, I just could not bring myself to subject my books to the "meatgrinder" I have heard so many horror stories about (though I have read several times recently that Smashwords has improved the process). For those who can figure out how to deal with the meatgrinder, Smashwords does seem to have a good track record with self-published authors.

The other important thing for authors I think is a chance to "get in early" as Apple grows its share of the ebook market. Your book may have a better chance at selling when there is less competition in the iBookstore.

Here is why I think Apple will gain a significant amount of the ebook market:

• Apple/Mac/iPad/iPhone users are fanatics when it comes to Apple products. My youngest daughter has an iPhone and regularly enters into debates with anyone who challenges "the superiority" of any version of the iPhone. 
• My place of work converted to Mac laptops and that has made a believer out of me.
• Apple is in much better financial shape than Amazon's nearest traditional competitor, Barnes and Noble.
• My wife tossed her Kindle HD the instant she opened her iPad for Christmas and she is NOT a Mac user or a fan of Mac (Given the fact I gave her the Kindle HD but not the iPad, I was a little chagrined at her quick abandonment for the iPad).
• Truth be told, you can do more with an iPad than you can a Kindle.
• Last of all, Mac is becoming the computer of first choice in educational systems. Students are learning to read and access media on Macs or iPads. They tend to stick with these devices once they have been introduced to them.

I don't foresee Apple's iBookstore taking away Amazon's number one position in the world of ebook sales. I do see the company in time cutting into Amazon's market share. While Amazon has been very good to me, I want to get my foot in the door while I can with Apple and enjoy the benefits of an expanding, loyal customer base with a supplier (Apple) who has a more limited supply of product (books) at  the moment than its biggest competitor (Amazon).

Take the time to find your way into the iBookstore and check the competition out. It may very well be worth your while to jump through the hoops necessary to make your book available in the iBookstore.

Now I need to get busy letting the readers of my other blog and my newsletter know my books are now available in the iBookstore!

Consider Audio Books as Part of your Distribution Plan

Self-published authors have figured out they can maximize the earnings of their book by producing both a POD paperback version as well as an ebook version, usually Kindle at the very least. 

Many of us may be "leaving money on the table" by not offering an audio version as well. Just as Amazon entered the print-on-demand business with CreateSpace, Amazon also owns Audible.com, or acx.com.

This company allows authors to produce an audio version of their ebook or print edition. Once the audio version has been created and uploaded to Audible.com, the audio version of the book will automatically be linked to the Kindle and paper version's listing on Amazon.

The audio book will be distributed to Audible.com, Amazon.com and iTunes if the author grants exclusive distributor rights to acx.com.

When I began investigating Audible.com, I first thought this would be another endless task I had to learn how to perform. A little research indicated this is something I need to consider and make a decision about quickly.

It appears more and more people are using audiobooks yet only 5% of all published print and ebooks are ever converted into audiobooks. I like the idea of increasing demand combined with low competition!

So take a look at acx.com and see if this is a business option you need to act on.

Is it Time to Consider iBookstore as Essential as Amazon's Kindle?

In the search to determine if and where I need to expand the availability of my ebooks, combined with my decision to experiment with using Draft2Digital to distribute my ebooks, I have been searching for information concerning which ebook retailer could emerge as a competitor to industry giant Amazon's KDP Kindle ebookstore.

Finding information about market share in the ebook publishing world is difficult. Even one of the best trackers of sales information for dissemination to self-publishers, Morris Rosenthal, was unable to give me definitive information when I contacted him about the subject. 

Contacting different authors and simply asking for their numbers has given some anecdotal evidence, but nothing that could be considered as accurate and unquestionable numbers concerning market share in the ebook market.

While anecdotal, the percentage of sales by the author's who shared their information with me showed a marked increase in sales through Apple's iBookstore. Two authors were generating 20% of their sales through this retail platform.

Amazon was still by and far the most significant ebook retailer for self-published authors and in all likelihood remain that way for years to come.

Still, if iBookstore can truly capture 20% of the ebook market, it will be a player, one that self-published authors would do well to take advantage of. 

It should also be noted that uses of Apple products such as the iPhone, iPad or Macintosh computers are highly loyal customers when it comes to all things Apple. It makes sense that as time passes and ebooks become more commonplace that Apple's iBookstore would become a major player in the ebook industry if for no other reason than the loyalty factor is Apple users.

Using Draft2Digital, I have four titles now available in the iBookstore and plan to add more as time permits and if sales warrant. I certainly want to be one of "the early adopters" and benefit from making my titles available through iBookstore.

Below are some articles and posts I was able to find in my efforts to try to learn if iBookstore is worth the effort to add to my list of ebook retailers I distribute my books through.  Here is what I found if any of the authors who read this blog are interested:

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2013/07/apple-amazon-ebook-antitrust-court-ruling.html

http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/12/apples-e-book-market-share-on-the-rise-desktop-os-x-ibooks-launch-should-help/

http://www.digitalbookworld.com/2013/bisg-report-a-few-more-ebook-stats/

Are Amazon and CreateSpace Winning the POD War With Lightning Source?

For some time now there have been rumors of a war on Lightning Source on the part of Amazon and its print-on-demand division, CreateSpace. Many indie and self-published authors have decried the sudden change in the status of their LSI distributed titles from "in stock" to "available in one to three weeks" which might as well be listed as out-of-stock.

This in turn led to what has been called "Plan B," an approach devised by Aaron Shepard, one of the foremost advocates of LSI in the past. Mr. Shepard now encourages authors to use CreateSpace for their POD services and distribution to Amazon.

Based on my own experience, I would advise everyone to go with CreateSpace and not LSI if the book you want to publish is your first. CreateSpace is much more user-friendly and it appears LSI now wants all self-publishing authors to use IngramSpark as the gateway to LSI.

In the past my suggestion that authors use CreateSpace was based on the ease of use. Now I would argue it is essential if you want your book to sell. All of my 30+ titles, save one, are printed and distributed by CreateSpace. They are always listed as in stock and available.

The line title, which also happens to be my best selling title in paperback, was also the first book I published. It is printed and distributed by LSI. 

The sales for the paperback edition of this title have collapsed in the last three months. Well, more than collapsed I should say, they have vanished. I have not sold a single copy.

The listing for the book ranges from "out of stock" to the equally dreaded "available in one to three weeks."

Please note, the book was also made available through CreateSpace and I did not authorize the Expanded Distribution feature. CreateSpace would be the lone supplier to Amazon. LSI would supply all other online retailers.

Up until three months ago, that was fine. Evidently, now it is not.

Recent correspondence with CreateSpace drew a response that since there were two possible suppliers, there had to be two listings. I suppose that makes sense. But guess which listing shows up first in the searches?

I guess I will have to break down and finally end my relationship with LSI in order to do something about restoring my sales ranking and sales for this book which had spent three years listed on the first page of results in its category before this sudden death spiral in sales.

Aaron Shepard has recently weighed in on this topic and has much more insight into the situation than I do. To read what Mr. Shepard has to say about the "Temporarily Out of Stock" issue regarding LSI and Amazon, please take the time to visit his post. It will be worth the read.

For those of us who broke in to self-publishing when POD was the way to do it, technology has once again changed the industry. Make sure you have a Kindle edition when you publish!